Drug prices
If list prices keep rising but net prices barely move, who captures the difference and where is it concentrated?
US brand-drug list prices run several times the peer median, but rebates keep net prices nearly flat while list prices climb. Medicare's first round of price negotiation cut ten high-spend drugs by 38 to 79 percent off their 2023 list price, effective 2026.
The problem
Drug pricing is a multi-channel affordability problem for hospitals, public programs, employers, and patients. List prices, net prices, rebates, acquisition costs, and program-specific discounts move differently, so a single headline price can obscure who pays, who negotiates, and who benefits.
The recommendation
Separate the drug-price chain into its component economics before judging policy success. The recommended approach is to report list, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices separately, then evaluate negotiation, formulary, and patient-cost policy by the transaction price and out-of-pocket exposure they actually change.
The gap
How much more Americans pay for brand-name medicine, at both the single-prescription and the whole-population scale.
US price as a multiple of the peer median, by drug
How many times the peer-country median monthly price each US brand drug costs. Anything above the line is more expensive here.
Read it this way Every bar clears the peer-parity line by more than double, ranging from 2.34x for Imbruvica to 3.68x for Eliquis. These are 2018 brand-name prices only, so they overstate the US premium overall since US generic prices run below the peer average. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
Caveat 2018 prices. The 256 percent headline is for brand-name drugs only. US generic prices are below the peer average.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Drug | US monthly, USD | Peer median monthly, USD | US-to-peer ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eliquis (apixaban) | 486 | 132 | 3.68 |
| Xarelto (rivaroxaban) | 440 | 126 | 3.49 |
| Humira (adalimumab) | 2669 | 822 | 3.25 |
| Revlimid (lenalidomide) | 18365 | 6886 | 2.67 |
| Imbruvica (ibrutinib) | 13061 | 5571 | 2.34 |
RAND, International Prescription Drug Price Comparisons (RR-2956) · 2018 · source
Prescription-drug spending per person, US vs peers, 2022
Annual per-person spending on prescription drugs. The reference line is the peer median.
Read it this way As in the headline hero chart, US per-person drug spending is the highest shown and sits well above the $816 peer-median line. This is total per-capita spending, not price per prescription, so it also reflects how much medicine Americans use. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Country | Drug spending per person, USD, 2022 |
|---|---|
| United States | 1432 |
| Germany | 948 |
| Switzerland | 912 |
| Japan | 850 |
| Canada | 782 |
| France | 640 |
| United Kingdom | 544 |
OECD Health Statistics via KFF Health System Tracker · 2022 · source
Why the sticker price lies
List price and paid price have decoupled. Rebates keep net prices flat while list climbs, and buyer leverage sets very different prices across programs.
List price vs net price growth, US protected brands
Year-over-year price growth for protected brand medicines. List prices keep rising while net prices, after rebates, stay near zero.
Read it this way The list-price line stays above the net-price line every year, and in 2020 net growth even went negative while list kept climbing. The gap between the two lines is the rebate, so a rising list price alone does not mean patients or payers actually paid more. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Year | List (WAC) growth, % | Net growth, % |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 6.6 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | 5.2 | 0.8 |
| 2020 | 4.3 | -3.2 |
| 2021 | 4.8 | 0.9 |
| 2022 | 3.7 | 0 |
| 2023 | 4.9 | 3 |
IQVIA Institute, protected-brand list vs net price growth · 2023 · source
How much of gross cost is rebated, by therapeutic class
Rebates as a share of gross cost, Medicare Part D 2021. The reference line is the all-Part-D average. Diabetes and anticoagulants are heavily rebated, while oncology and immunology are barely rebated at all.
Read it this way Endocrine and blood-modifier bars sit well above the 23 percent all-Part-D average, while oncology and immunology sit far below it at 2 and 5 percent. A low rebate share is what lets list-price increases pass through nearly unrebated, in the same classes shown climbing in the list-vs-net line beside it. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
Caveat Medicare Part D 2021 data (GAO), not commercial. This differs in basis from the IQVIA protected-brand list-vs-net line beside it.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Therapeutic class | Rebate, % of gross (Part D, 2021) |
|---|---|
| Endocrine metabolic / anti-diabetic | 47 |
| Blood modifier / anticoagulant | 39 |
| Respiratory | 37 |
| Ophthalmologic | 34 |
| Genitourinary | 31 |
| Musculoskeletal | 21 |
| Gastrointestinal | 19 |
| Cardiovascular | 10 |
| Central nervous system | 8 |
| Dermatological | 8 |
| Anti-infective | 6 |
| Immunological / autoimmune | 5 |
| Antineoplastic / oncology | 2 |
| All Part D drugs (average) | 23 |
GAO, Medicare Part D rebates by therapeutic class (GAO-23-105270) · 2021 · source
Same drugs, different buyer: Medicaid vs Medicare Part D net price
Average net price per 30-day prescription, after each program's own rebates, for the same basket of 176 top brand drugs. Medicaid's statutory rebate extracts a far lower price.
Read it this way Medicaid's net price is roughly a third of Medicare's for standard brand drugs and well under half for specialty drugs, even though both figures are already net of rebates. The gap shows how much buyer leverage, not underlying cost, can move the price of the identical drug. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
Caveat CBO analysis of 176 top-selling brand drugs, 2021. Both figures are already net of each program's rebates, so this is a leverage comparison, not a list-vs-net gap.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Drug category | Medicaid net, USD/30-day | Medicare Part D net, USD/30-day |
|---|---|---|
| Standard brand drugs | 118 | 343 |
| Specialty brand drugs | 1889 | 4293 |
CBO, Prices for Brand-Name Drugs Under Selected Federal Programs · 2021 · source
List price is fiction: transaction price as a share of AWP list
Manufacturer and sales prices as a share of the AWP list price. The reference line is the AWP list. AMP is the Medicaid rebate base. ASP is a Medicare Part B benchmark shown for context.
Read it this way Both federal transaction benchmarks sit well below the AWP list line, at 80 and 74 percent, showing list price is rarely what anyone actually pays. Generic ASP falling to 32 percent shows the gap widens far more once a drug loses exclusivity. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
Caveat OIG findings. ASP is a Part B benchmark, not a Medicaid measure, included to show how far list prices sit above transaction prices across federal programs.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Metric | Share of AWP list, % |
|---|---|
| AMP as share of AWP (list) | 80 |
| ASP as share of AWP, single-source brand (median) | 74 |
| ASP as share of AWP, generic (median) | 32 |
HHS Office of Inspector General, AMP and ASP relative to AWP · 2021 · source
What's spent, and what's being done
Where Part D dollars concentrate, whether the cost is volume or unit price, and whether Medicare negotiation actually reduces what those drugs cost.
Top Medicare Part D drugs by gross spending, 2022
Total gross Part D spending per drug in 2022. Just 25 drugs accounted for 37.4 percent of all Part D spending.
Read it this way Eliquis alone accounts for more Part D gross spending than the next two drugs combined, and these top drugs are part of the 37.4 percent share flagged in the KPI above. The figures are gross cost before manufacturer rebates, so net spending is lower. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
Caveat Gross cost, before manufacturer rebates, which CMS is barred from publishing. Net spending is lower.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Drug | Gross Part D spending, USD billions, 2022 |
|---|---|
| Eliquis | 15.22 |
| Trulicity | 6.23 |
| Revlimid | 5.94 |
| Jardiance | 5.85 |
| Xarelto | 5.77 |
| Ozempic | 4.63 |
| Januvia | 4.1 |
| Humira | 3.69 |
| Trelegy Ellipta | 3.34 |
| Lantus Solostar | 2.87 |
CMS, Medicare Part D Spending by Drug · 2022 · source
Blockbuster vs rare-disease: patients treated vs cost per patient
Each point is one of the top 25 Part D drugs. Far right and low means many patients at moderate cost. Far left and high means few patients at extreme cost. Same total spend, opposite policy levers.
Read it this way Points cluster into two groups: high-volume, moderate-cost drugs like Eliquis and Jardiance sit toward the bottom right, while low-volume, extreme-cost drugs like Revlimid and Pomalyst sit toward the top left. Both groups can produce similar total spending, but they call for different fixes, volume-based negotiation for one, price caps for the other. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
Caveat Axes are linear, so the mass-market drugs bunch to the right. Total spending per drug is in the table, not the dot size.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Drug | Beneficiaries, 2022 | Avg spending per beneficiary, USD | Total gross spend, USD billions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eliquis | 3505142 | 4342 | 15.22 |
| Trulicity | 840163 | 7410 | 6.23 |
| Revlimid | 45557 | 130277 | 5.94 |
| Jardiance | 1321067 | 4430 | 5.85 |
| Xarelto | 1311333 | 4402 | 5.77 |
| Ozempic | 780253 | 5932 | 4.63 |
| Januvia | 884825 | 4631 | 4.1 |
| Humira (Cf) Pen | 57418 | 64335 | 3.69 |
| Trelegy Ellipta | 834046 | 4005 | 3.34 |
| Lantus Solostar | 1072434 | 2680 | 2.87 |
| Imbruvica | 22202 | 128543 | 2.85 |
| Biktarvy | 75791 | 35672 | 2.7 |
| Farxiga | 638800 | 4046 | 2.58 |
| Entresto | 520839 | 4780 | 2.49 |
| Xtandi | 27803 | 87645 | 2.44 |
| Stelara | 19969 | 117136 | 2.34 |
| Myrbetriq | 716234 | 3145 | 2.25 |
| Symbicort | 968708 | 2028 | 1.96 |
| Ibrance | 17497 | 111352 | 1.95 |
| Novolog Flexpen | 567315 | 3243 | 1.84 |
| Enbrel Sureclick | 32342 | 55139 | 1.78 |
| Ofev | 20686 | 85225 | 1.76 |
| Jakafi | 13486 | 130239 | 1.76 |
| Pomalyst | 12682 | 137509 | 1.74 |
| Restasis | 556562 | 2958 | 1.65 |
CMS, Medicare Part D Spending by Drug · 2022 · source
How fast the top-5 drugs' Part D spending grew, 2018-2022
Gross Part D spending per year for the five largest drugs. Eliquis roughly tripled and Jardiance grew nearly ninefold, the pressure behind negotiation.
Read it this way Eliquis climbed from $4.99B to $15.22B and Jardiance from $0.67B to $5.85B over just five years. This growth in gross spending is the pressure behind Medicare's first negotiated-price round shown in the next chart. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Year | Eliquis | Trulicity | Revlimid | Jardiance | Xarelto |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 4.99 | 1.36 | 4.07 | 0.67 | 3.36 |
| 2019 | 7.31 | 2.27 | 4.67 | 1.45 | 4.08 |
| 2020 | 9.94 | 3.28 | 5.36 | 2.38 | 4.7 |
| 2021 | 12.58 | 4.7 | 5.89 | 3.74 | 5.23 |
| 2022 | 15.22 | 6.23 | 5.94 | 5.85 | 5.77 |
CMS, Medicare Part D Spending by Drug · 2022 · source
Medicare's first negotiated prices: cut from 2023 list price
Percent reduction from each drug's 2023 list price to its 2026 Maximum Fair Price. The 2023 list and negotiated price are in the table.
Read it this way List-price cuts range from 38 percent for Imbruvica to 79 percent for Januvia, but the caveat notes CMS estimated the true average cut after existing rebates at about 22 percent. The bars measure list-price relief, not the smaller net savings for drugs that were already heavily rebated. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.
Caveat These are reductions off list price. CMS estimated the average net reduction, after existing rebates, at about 22 percent.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Drug | 2023 list price, 30-day, USD | Maximum Fair Price, 30-day, USD | Percent cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| Januvia | 527 | 113 | 79 |
| Insulin aspart (Fiasp/NovoLog) | 495 | 119 | 76 |
| Farxiga | 556 | 178.5 | 68 |
| Enbrel | 7106 | 2355 | 67 |
| Jardiance | 573 | 197 | 66 |
| Stelara | 13836 | 4695 | 66 |
| Xarelto | 517 | 197 | 62 |
| Eliquis | 521 | 231 | 56 |
| Entresto | 628 | 295 | 53 |
| Imbruvica | 14934 | 9319 | 38 |
CMS, Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, negotiated prices for 2026 · 2024 · source
Why this matters
List and net prices have decoupled: the industry-wide gross-to-net discount is 52 percent, and rebate depth varies enormously by therapeutic class, from 47 percent for endocrine drugs down to just 2 percent for oncology. Buyer leverage, not underlying cost, also moves price: Medicaid's statutory rebate nets a price roughly a third of Medicare's for the same standard brand drugs. Medicare's first negotiated-price round cut list prices 38 to 79 percent, but the true net cut after existing rebates was closer to 22 percent, so headline list-price relief overstates the win.
Recommended actions
- Expand the number of drugs eligible for Medicare negotiation and shorten the phase-in, prioritizing the highest-spend drugs like Eliquis and Jardiance that already dominate Part D gross spending.
- Monitor net-of-rebate savings, not list-price cuts alone, since the first round's true net reduction (about 22 percent) was far smaller than the headline 38-to-79-percent list cuts.
- Watch therapeutic classes with thin rebate coverage, especially oncology (2 percent) and immunology (5 percent), where list-price increases pass through to net cost almost unrebated.
- Track the Medicaid-to-Medicare net price gap by drug as a live measure of how much buyer leverage, separate from negotiation, could still be extracted.
- For low-volume, extreme-cost drugs such as Revlimid and Pomalyst, monitor spend separately from blockbuster drugs, since volume-based negotiation levers do not apply the same way to rare-disease pricing.
The recommendation
Therefore, separate the drug-price chain into its component economics before judging policy success. The recommended approach is to report list, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices separately, then evaluate negotiation, formulary, and patient-cost policy by the transaction price and out-of-pocket exposure they actually change.
Demographic slice none. RAND/KFF/OECD price data has no patient-demographic field.
Sources
- RAND, International Prescription Drug Price Comparisons (RR-2956) · 2021
- CMS, Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, negotiated prices for 2026 · 2024
- IQVIA Institute, protected-brand list vs net price growth (NJ PDAC slideshow) · 2025
- GAO, Medicare Part D rebates by therapeutic class (GAO-23-105270) · 2021
- CBO, Prices for Brand-Name Drugs Under Selected Federal Programs · 2021
- HHS Office of Inspector General, AMP and ASP relative to AWP · 2021
- MACPAC, Medicaid gross spending and rebates for drugs (Exhibit 28) · 2024
- CMS, Medicare Part D Spending by Drug · 2022