off label.

Drug prices

If list prices keep rising but net prices barely move, who captures the difference and where is it concentrated?

US brand-drug list prices run several times the peer median, but rebates keep net prices nearly flat while list prices climb. Medicare's first round of price negotiation cut ten high-spend drugs by 38 to 79 percent off their 2023 list price, effective 2026.

Question

The problem

Drug pricing is a multi-channel affordability problem for hospitals, public programs, employers, and patients. List prices, net prices, rebates, acquisition costs, and program-specific discounts move differently, so a single headline price can obscure who pays, who negotiates, and who benefits.

The recommendation

Separate the drug-price chain into its component economics before judging policy success. The recommended approach is to report list, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices separately, then evaluate negotiation, formulary, and patient-cost policy by the transaction price and out-of-pocket exposure they actually change.

The gap

How much more Americans pay for brand-name medicine, at both the single-prescription and the whole-population scale.

2.56x
US brand-drug prices vs the 32-country average
Brand-name drugs only. US generic prices are below the peer average.
$1,432
US prescription-drug spending per person, 2022
Highest of the peer nations. Peer median is $816.

US price as a multiple of the peer median, by drug

How many times the peer-country median monthly price each US brand drug costs. Anything above the line is more expensive here.

Read it this way Every bar clears the peer-parity line by more than double, ranging from 2.34x for Imbruvica to 3.68x for Eliquis. These are 2018 brand-name prices only, so they overstate the US premium overall since US generic prices run below the peer average. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

Caveat 2018 prices. The 256 percent headline is for brand-name drugs only. US generic prices are below the peer average.

0.00× 1.25× 2.50× 3.75× 5.00× Eliquis (apixaban) 3.68× Xarelto (rivaroxaban) 3.49× Humira (adalimumab) 3.25× Revlimid (lenalidomide) 2.67× Imbruvica (ibrutinib) 2.34× peer parity
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
DrugUS monthly, USDPeer median monthly, USDUS-to-peer ratio
Eliquis (apixaban)4861323.68
Xarelto (rivaroxaban)4401263.49
Humira (adalimumab)26698223.25
Revlimid (lenalidomide)1836568862.67
Imbruvica (ibrutinib)1306155712.34

RAND, International Prescription Drug Price Comparisons (RR-2956) · 2018 · source

Prescription-drug spending per person, US vs peers, 2022

Annual per-person spending on prescription drugs. The reference line is the peer median.

Read it this way As in the headline hero chart, US per-person drug spending is the highest shown and sits well above the $816 peer-median line. This is total per-capita spending, not price per prescription, so it also reflects how much medicine Americans use. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 United States $1,432 Germany $948 Switzerland $912 Japan $850 Canada $782 France $640 United Kingdom $544 peer median
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
CountryDrug spending per person, USD, 2022
United States1432
Germany948
Switzerland912
Japan850
Canada782
France640
United Kingdom544

OECD Health Statistics via KFF Health System Tracker · 2022 · source

Why the sticker price lies

List price and paid price have decoupled. Rebates keep net prices flat while list climbs, and buyer leverage sets very different prices across programs.

52%
industry gross-to-net discount off US list price, 2024
The share of brand list price returned as rebates and discounts.
54.9%
of Medicaid gross drug spending clawed back as rebates, FY2024
$58.4B in rebates on $106.4B of gross outpatient drug spending.

List price vs net price growth, US protected brands

Year-over-year price growth for protected brand medicines. List prices keep rising while net prices, after rebates, stay near zero.

Read it this way The list-price line stays above the net-price line every year, and in 2020 net growth even went negative while list kept climbing. The gap between the two lines is the rebate, so a rising list price alone does not mean patients or payers actually paid more. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 201820192020202120222023 List (WAC) price growthNet price growth
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
YearList (WAC) growth, %Net growth, %
20186.60.3
20195.20.8
20204.3-3.2
20214.80.9
20223.70
20234.93

IQVIA Institute, protected-brand list vs net price growth · 2023 · source

How much of gross cost is rebated, by therapeutic class

Rebates as a share of gross cost, Medicare Part D 2021. The reference line is the all-Part-D average. Diabetes and anticoagulants are heavily rebated, while oncology and immunology are barely rebated at all.

Read it this way Endocrine and blood-modifier bars sit well above the 23 percent all-Part-D average, while oncology and immunology sit far below it at 2 and 5 percent. A low rebate share is what lets list-price increases pass through nearly unrebated, in the same classes shown climbing in the list-vs-net line beside it. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

Caveat Medicare Part D 2021 data (GAO), not commercial. This differs in basis from the IQVIA protected-brand list-vs-net line beside it.

0% 13% 25% 38% 50% Endocrine / anti-diabetic 47% Blood modifier / anticoagulant 39% Respiratory 37% Ophthalmologic 34% Genitourinary 31% Musculoskeletal 21% Gastrointestinal 19% Cardiovascular 10% Central nervous system 8% Dermatological 8% Anti-infective 6% Immunological / autoimmune 5% Antineoplastic / oncology 2% all Part D average
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
Therapeutic classRebate, % of gross (Part D, 2021)
Endocrine metabolic / anti-diabetic47
Blood modifier / anticoagulant39
Respiratory37
Ophthalmologic34
Genitourinary31
Musculoskeletal21
Gastrointestinal19
Cardiovascular10
Central nervous system8
Dermatological8
Anti-infective6
Immunological / autoimmune5
Antineoplastic / oncology2
All Part D drugs (average)23

GAO, Medicare Part D rebates by therapeutic class (GAO-23-105270) · 2021 · source

Same drugs, different buyer: Medicaid vs Medicare Part D net price

Average net price per 30-day prescription, after each program's own rebates, for the same basket of 176 top brand drugs. Medicaid's statutory rebate extracts a far lower price.

Read it this way Medicaid's net price is roughly a third of Medicare's for standard brand drugs and well under half for specialty drugs, even though both figures are already net of rebates. The gap shows how much buyer leverage, not underlying cost, can move the price of the identical drug. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

Caveat CBO analysis of 176 top-selling brand drugs, 2021. Both figures are already net of each program's rebates, so this is a leverage comparison, not a list-vs-net gap.

$0 $1,250 $2,500 $3,750 $5,000 $118 $343 Standard brand drugs $1,889 $4,293 Specialty brand drugs Medicaid net Medicare Part D net
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
Drug categoryMedicaid net, USD/30-dayMedicare Part D net, USD/30-day
Standard brand drugs118343
Specialty brand drugs18894293

CBO, Prices for Brand-Name Drugs Under Selected Federal Programs · 2021 · source

List price is fiction: transaction price as a share of AWP list

Manufacturer and sales prices as a share of the AWP list price. The reference line is the AWP list. AMP is the Medicaid rebate base. ASP is a Medicare Part B benchmark shown for context.

Read it this way Both federal transaction benchmarks sit well below the AWP list line, at 80 and 74 percent, showing list price is rarely what anyone actually pays. Generic ASP falling to 32 percent shows the gap widens far more once a drug loses exclusivity. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

Caveat OIG findings. ASP is a Part B benchmark, not a Medicaid measure, included to show how far list prices sit above transaction prices across federal programs.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% AMP (Medicaid rebate base) 80% ASP, single-source brand 74% ASP, generic 32% AWP list price
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
MetricShare of AWP list, %
AMP as share of AWP (list)80
ASP as share of AWP, single-source brand (median)74
ASP as share of AWP, generic (median)32

HHS Office of Inspector General, AMP and ASP relative to AWP · 2021 · source

What's spent, and what's being done

Where Part D dollars concentrate, whether the cost is volume or unit price, and whether Medicare negotiation actually reduces what those drugs cost.

37.4%
of all Medicare Part D spending came from just 25 drugs, 2022
$89.7B of $239.8B in gross Part D spending.
22%
true average cut from Medicare's first negotiated prices, after existing rebates
List-price cuts ran 38 to 79 percent. About $6 billion estimated 2023 savings.

Top Medicare Part D drugs by gross spending, 2022

Total gross Part D spending per drug in 2022. Just 25 drugs accounted for 37.4 percent of all Part D spending.

Read it this way Eliquis alone accounts for more Part D gross spending than the next two drugs combined, and these top drugs are part of the 37.4 percent share flagged in the KPI above. The figures are gross cost before manufacturer rebates, so net spending is lower. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

Caveat Gross cost, before manufacturer rebates, which CMS is barred from publishing. Net spending is lower.

$0B $5B $10B $15B $20B Eliquis $15.2B Trulicity $6.2B Revlimid $5.9B Jardiance $5.9B Xarelto $5.8B Ozempic $4.6B Januvia $4.1B Humira $3.7B Trelegy Ellipta $3.3B Lantus Solostar $2.9B
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
DrugGross Part D spending, USD billions, 2022
Eliquis15.22
Trulicity6.23
Revlimid5.94
Jardiance5.85
Xarelto5.77
Ozempic4.63
Januvia4.1
Humira3.69
Trelegy Ellipta3.34
Lantus Solostar2.87

CMS, Medicare Part D Spending by Drug · 2022 · source

Blockbuster vs rare-disease: patients treated vs cost per patient

Each point is one of the top 25 Part D drugs. Far right and low means many patients at moderate cost. Far left and high means few patients at extreme cost. Same total spend, opposite policy levers.

Read it this way Points cluster into two groups: high-volume, moderate-cost drugs like Eliquis and Jardiance sit toward the bottom right, while low-volume, extreme-cost drugs like Revlimid and Pomalyst sit toward the top left. Both groups can produce similar total spending, but they call for different fixes, volume-based negotiation for one, price caps for the other. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

Caveat Axes are linear, so the mass-market drugs bunch to the right. Total spending per drug is in the table, not the dot size.

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 01,250,0002,500,0003,750,0005,000,000 Eliquis Trulicity Revlimid Jardiance Xarelto Ozempic Januvia Humira (Cf) Pen Trelegy Ellipta Lantus Solostar Imbruvica Biktarvy Farxiga Entresto Xtandi Stelara Myrbetriq Symbicort Ibrance Novolog Flexpen Enbrel Sureclick Ofev Jakafi Pomalyst Restasis BENEFICIARIES TREATED, 2022 AVERAGE SPENDING PER BENEFICIARY, USD
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
DrugBeneficiaries, 2022Avg spending per beneficiary, USDTotal gross spend, USD billions
Eliquis3505142434215.22
Trulicity84016374106.23
Revlimid455571302775.94
Jardiance132106744305.85
Xarelto131133344025.77
Ozempic78025359324.63
Januvia88482546314.1
Humira (Cf) Pen57418643353.69
Trelegy Ellipta83404640053.34
Lantus Solostar107243426802.87
Imbruvica222021285432.85
Biktarvy75791356722.7
Farxiga63880040462.58
Entresto52083947802.49
Xtandi27803876452.44
Stelara199691171362.34
Myrbetriq71623431452.25
Symbicort96870820281.96
Ibrance174971113521.95
Novolog Flexpen56731532431.84
Enbrel Sureclick32342551391.78
Ofev20686852251.76
Jakafi134861302391.76
Pomalyst126821375091.74
Restasis55656229581.65

CMS, Medicare Part D Spending by Drug · 2022 · source

How fast the top-5 drugs' Part D spending grew, 2018-2022

Gross Part D spending per year for the five largest drugs. Eliquis roughly tripled and Jardiance grew nearly ninefold, the pressure behind negotiation.

Read it this way Eliquis climbed from $4.99B to $15.22B and Jardiance from $0.67B to $5.85B over just five years. This growth in gross spending is the pressure behind Medicare's first negotiated-price round shown in the next chart. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

$0B $5B $10B $15B $20B 20182019202020212022 EliquisTrulicityRevlimidJardianceXarelto
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
YearEliquisTrulicityRevlimidJardianceXarelto
20184.991.364.070.673.36
20197.312.274.671.454.08
20209.943.285.362.384.7
202112.584.75.893.745.23
202215.226.235.945.855.77

CMS, Medicare Part D Spending by Drug · 2022 · source

Medicare's first negotiated prices: cut from 2023 list price

Percent reduction from each drug's 2023 list price to its 2026 Maximum Fair Price. The 2023 list and negotiated price are in the table.

Read it this way List-price cuts range from 38 percent for Imbruvica to 79 percent for Januvia, but the caveat notes CMS estimated the true average cut after existing rebates at about 22 percent. The bars measure list-price relief, not the smaller net savings for drugs that were already heavily rebated. Use this chart to identify which price layer is visible and why the recommendation requires separating gross, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices before acting.

Caveat These are reductions off list price. CMS estimated the average net reduction, after existing rebates, at about 22 percent.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Januvia 79% Insulin aspart (Fiasp/NovoLog) 76% Farxiga 68% Enbrel 67% Jardiance 66% Stelara 66% Xarelto 62% Eliquis 56% Entresto 53% Imbruvica 38%
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
Drug2023 list price, 30-day, USDMaximum Fair Price, 30-day, USDPercent cut
Januvia52711379
Insulin aspart (Fiasp/NovoLog)49511976
Farxiga556178.568
Enbrel7106235567
Jardiance57319766
Stelara13836469566
Xarelto51719762
Eliquis52123156
Entresto62829553
Imbruvica14934931938

CMS, Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, negotiated prices for 2026 · 2024 · source

Why this matters

List and net prices have decoupled: the industry-wide gross-to-net discount is 52 percent, and rebate depth varies enormously by therapeutic class, from 47 percent for endocrine drugs down to just 2 percent for oncology. Buyer leverage, not underlying cost, also moves price: Medicaid's statutory rebate nets a price roughly a third of Medicare's for the same standard brand drugs. Medicare's first negotiated-price round cut list prices 38 to 79 percent, but the true net cut after existing rebates was closer to 22 percent, so headline list-price relief overstates the win.

Recommended actions

  • Expand the number of drugs eligible for Medicare negotiation and shorten the phase-in, prioritizing the highest-spend drugs like Eliquis and Jardiance that already dominate Part D gross spending.
  • Monitor net-of-rebate savings, not list-price cuts alone, since the first round's true net reduction (about 22 percent) was far smaller than the headline 38-to-79-percent list cuts.
  • Watch therapeutic classes with thin rebate coverage, especially oncology (2 percent) and immunology (5 percent), where list-price increases pass through to net cost almost unrebated.
  • Track the Medicaid-to-Medicare net price gap by drug as a live measure of how much buyer leverage, separate from negotiation, could still be extracted.
  • For low-volume, extreme-cost drugs such as Revlimid and Pomalyst, monitor spend separately from blockbuster drugs, since volume-based negotiation levers do not apply the same way to rare-disease pricing.

The recommendation

Therefore, separate the drug-price chain into its component economics before judging policy success. The recommended approach is to report list, net, rebate, and buyer-specific prices separately, then evaluate negotiation, formulary, and patient-cost policy by the transaction price and out-of-pocket exposure they actually change.

Demographic slice none. RAND/KFF/OECD price data has no patient-demographic field.

Sources