Provider shortage

Read it this way Primary care and surgical specialties show a shortfall under both the low and high estimate, but medical and other specialties straddle zero, meaning the same methodology projects either a modest shortage or a modest surplus for those two groups depending on the scenario. As the caveat notes, press coverage usually leads with the 86,000 high-end total alone, when the report's actual finding is the full 13,500-to-86,000 range. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

Caveat AAMC press materials and most coverage lead with the high end (up to 86,000), but the report's actual finding is a range from 13,500 to 86,000, and two specialty groups span from a shortage into a projected surplus depending on the scenario.

AAMC, The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036 · 2024 · source

Read it this way The equity-adjusted estimate, 117,100 to 202,800 physicians, dwarfs the officially projected 2036 shortfall of 13,500 to 86,000, showing true parity would require far more than the official shortfall implies. As the caveat states, the equity figure is a 2021 hypothetical and is not additive to the 2036 range, so don't sum the two. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

Caveat The equity-adjusted figure (117,100 to 202,800) is a hypothetical demand estimate for 2021 and is not additive to the 2036 shortfall range.

AAMC, The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036 · 2024 · source

Read it this way Urban physician density outpaces rural in all three measures, with the widest gap in the all-physician count (125.3 vs 59.7 per 100,000). As the caveat notes, the three rows use different provider definitions and years, so this is three separate snapshots of the same rural-urban pattern, not one consistent time series. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

Caveat The three rows use different provider definitions and years and are not a single time series.

CDC/NCHS (2012), USDA ERS (2020), JAMA Network Open (2010 to 2017) · 2021 · source

Read it this way States shaded darkest, below the 291.4 national benchmark, like Texas at 225.0 and California at 238.7, have thinner primary-care coverage than the rest of the country, while DC (548.9) and Massachusetts (400.2) lead. This counts physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants together, so it can mask a shortage in one of those three roles even in a state that looks adequately staffed overall. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

America's Health Rankings, Primary Care Providers (CMS NPPES) · 2025 · source

Read it this way Every bar falls far short of the 100% reference line, and mental health lags furthest at 26.53% met, roughly half of primary care's 47.43%. This is need met only inside areas already designated as shortage areas, so it doesn't capture unmet need in places that haven't been formally designated. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce, Designated HPSA Quarterly Summary, Q3 FY2026 · 2026 · source

Read it this way More primary-care physicians are needed (18,541) than dentists or mental-health providers alone to erase every current shortage designation. This is the practitioner count needed to close existing designated gaps, a different measure from the AAMC's 2036 projected shortfall shown elsewhere in this tab, so the two figures shouldn't be added together. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce, Designated HPSA Quarterly Summary, Q3 FY2026 · 2026 · source

Read it this way Idaho residents share a psychiatrist among roughly 9.5 times as many people as DC residents do (13,709 vs 1,442 per psychiatrist), showing the psychiatrist shortage is far more geographically uneven than a national average would suggest. As the caveat notes, this covers only 10 states from secondary sources citing HRSA data that can disagree by 5 to 20%, so treat exact figures as approximate. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

Caveat Psychiatrist-only counts are estimated from secondary sources citing HRSA (2024) and cover only 10 states. Sources disagree by 5 to 20%.

Psychiatrist Shortage by State (citing HRSA data as of December 2024) · 2024 · source

Read it this way Faculty shortage alone accounts for 64% of why qualified nursing applicants get turned away, nearly five times the next largest reason, insufficient clinical sites at 14%. This shows why programs reject qualified applicants, not how many total qualified applicants apply each year. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

American Association of Colleges of Nursing, 2023 to 2024 Enrollment and Graduations · 2024 · source

Read it this way Turned-away applicants climbed to a peak of 91,938 in 2021 before easing to 65,766 by 2023, so the bottleneck has loosened somewhat but remains above the 2014 to 2017 baseline of roughly 56,000 to 69,000. This shows applicants rejected, a proxy for the size of the faculty-capacity constraint, not the total number of students who wanted to enroll. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

American Association of Colleges of Nursing, 2023 to 2024 Enrollment and Graduations · 2024 · source

Read it this way Nurse faculty earn about $37,355 less than clinical nurse practitioners doing comparable-level work, a pay gap the note ties directly to why programs can't hire enough faculty to admit more of the qualified applicants shown in the chart beside it. This is one salary comparison, so it can't quantify how much closing the gap would actually shrink the faculty shortage. Use this chart to locate the bottleneck in the workforce supply chain, projection, geography, specialty, or training capacity, and to test where targeted workforce investment should be sequenced first.

American Association of Colleges of Nursing, Salaries of Nursing Faculty · 2023 · source