off label.

Sustainability

Can the system keep running?

18.0% of GDP spent on health care in 2024
The through-line

Health spending is on track for 20.6 percent of GDP by 2034, nearly half of physicians report a burnout symptom, the sector emits 8.5 percent of US greenhouse gases, and 154 rural hospitals have stopped inpatient care since 2010.

National health spending as a share of GDP, 2013 through 2034

Solid line is reported history through 2024. The dashed line is the CMS Office of the Actuary projection.

Read it this way The solid segment shows the share already rose 1.1 percentage points from 2013 to 2024, and the dashed segment shows CMS expects another 2.6-point climb by 2034. Everything past 2024 is a projection revised annually, so read the dashed slope as a direction, not a locked-in number.

Caveat The 2025 through 2034 points are CMS projections, not actuals, and are revised every year. NHE shares are also restated as BEA revises GDP.

16.0% 18.3% 20.5% 22.8% 25.0% 2013201520172019202120232024 CMS projectionReported PERCENT OF GDP
Horizon
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
YearPercent of GDPBasis
201316.9reported
201417.1reported
201517.4reported
201617.7reported
201717.7reported
201817.6reported
201917.7reported
202019.7reported
202118.4reported
202217.6reported
202317.7reported
202418reported
202518.4projection
202618.7projection
202718.8projection
202819.1projection
202919.4projection
203019.6projection
203119.8projection
203220projection
203320.3projection
203420.6projection

CMS NHE Projections Table 1, National Health Expenditures and Selected Economic Indicators · 2013-2034 · source

What’s moving on this

Legislation in play that touches sustainability

In this bucket
  • WWII Nurses Congressional Gold Medal Act
  • Conrad State 30 and Physician Access Reauthorization Act
  • Title VIII Nursing Workforce Reauthorization Act of 2025
See all legislation & rulemaking, with the stage funnel and CBO scores →

Counts from Congress.gov + state-legislation trackers, keyword-mapped to this Iron Triangle force. As of 2026-06-18. See the methodology note on the legislation dashboard.

Sources & methodology

Per-chart citation straps carry the in-context detail; this is the full bibliography.