off label.

Surprise bills

Did the arbitration system built to settle those bills get overwhelmed, and is it slow?

For patients, yes: the law holds them harmless and prevents more than a million surprise bills a month. The back-end arbitration between providers and insurers is another story, with volume far above projections, providers winning about 85 percent of determinations, and awards running near 322 percent of the insurer benchmark.

Question

The problem

Surprise-billing reform solved a visible patient harm but pushed conflict into the national payment-dispute infrastructure. Hospitals, physician groups, payers, and arbitrators now operate a back-end process that can become slow, costly, and concentrated among a small number of high-volume initiators.

The recommendation

Preserve the patient shield while redesigning the dispute system for throughput and accountability. The recommended program is to reduce unnecessary arbitration, monitor resolution time and initiator concentration, enforce clear QPA rules, and keep administrative costs from recreating the affordability problem out of sight.

The patient shield

The verdict on whether the law did its consumer job: stopping surprise balance bills at the point of care.

~1M
surprise bills prevented each month under the No Surprises Act
Payer-reported (AHIP/BCBSA), not a government audit. Analysts credit the direction, not the exact magnitude.
~10M
claims flagged as NSA-protected in the first 9 months of 2023
The size of the shielded pool of surprise bills patients no longer receive.

The arbitration breakdown

The back-end payment fight going sideways: overwhelmed far past projection, running slow, tilting to providers, and awarding far above the insurer benchmark.

322%
median IDR award as a share of the insurer benchmark (QPA), 2024
Roughly three times the benchmark Congress assumed arbitration would track.
85%
of IDR determinations decided for the provider, 2024
Up from 80 percent in 2023 and rising to 88 percent in the first half of 2025.

IDR disputes initiated vs resolved per year

New arbitration disputes filed and closed each year. The flat line near the axis is the roughly 17,000 a year regulators originally projected.

Read it this way The projected-volume line sits flat near the bottom while initiated and closed disputes both climbed into the millions by 2024, more than eighty times the original 17,000-a-year estimate. The caveat notes that only in the first half of 2025 did closures begin exceeding new filings, meaning the backlog was still growing, not shrinking, over the years plotted here. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.

Caveat The 2024 initiated figure is CRS's rounded count of more than 1.46 million. In the first half of 2025, closures (1,349,343) already exceeded new filings (1,186,812) as the backlog began to clear.

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 202220232024 Disputes initiatedDisputes closedProjected 17,000/yr
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
YearDisputes initiatedDisputes closedOriginal projection
20222001125482117000
202367915631186317000
20241460000137186217000

CMS and Congressional Research Service, Federal IDR data · 2024 · source

Business days to resolve a dispute vs the statutory target

Median business days to close a dispute in Q4 2024, against the 33-business-day legal target. Air-ambulance cases run nearly three times the target.

Read it this way Both bars clear the 33-business-day statutory target, and air-ambulance disputes take close to three times as long as the median case. The caveat that roughly two-thirds of 2025 determinations still exceeded the requirement suggests this is a persistent pattern, not a one-time backlog. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.

Caveat In 2025 roughly two-thirds of determinations still exceeded the 30-business-day requirement.

0 25 50 75 100 Air-ambulance disputes 93 All disputes (median) 54 statutory target
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
Dispute typeMedian business days, Q4 2024Statutory target
All disputes5433
Air-ambulance disputes9333

CMS, Federal IDR data · 2024 · source

Provider vs insurer share of IDR determinations, by period

Share of arbitration determinations decided for each side. The provider share climbs every period while the insurer and benchmark side shrinks.

Read it this way The provider line rises every period while the insurer line falls by the same amount, a mirror-image trend showing the shift is one-directional rather than fluctuating. This chart alone does not explain why; that context is in the litigation timeline chart in this tab. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 20232024H1 2025 Provider winInsurer win
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
PeriodProvider win, %Insurer win, %
20238020
20248515
H1 20258812

CMS and Congressional Research Service, Federal IDR data · 2025 · source

The highest-volume initiators win even more often, 2025

Win rate for the three largest dispute initiators. The line marks the overall H1 2025 provider win rate.

Read it this way Team Health and Radiology Partners both win more often than the overall 88 percent average, while HaloMD wins less often than that average despite still winning most of its cases. The caveat notes two of the three figures are ranges plotted at their midpoint, so treat the bar heights as approximate. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.

Caveat Two of the three are reported as ranges. Radiology Partners is 92 to 95 percent and HaloMD is 82 to 87 percent, plotted at their midpoints, with the ranges in the table.

0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0% Team Health 94.0% Radiology Partners 93.5% HaloMD 84.5% overall H1 2025
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
InitiatorWin rate, 2025Reported figure
Team Health9494% (point)
Radiology Partners93.592-95% (midpoint plotted)
HaloMD84.582-87% (midpoint plotted)

Georgetown CHIR, No Surprises Act IDR process, early 2025 data · 2025 · source

How many times the benchmark, by specialty: lowest to highest quarter

For each specialty, the lowest-quarter and highest-quarter median award as a multiple of the insurer benchmark (QPA). The line marks parity. Neurology ran as high as 17 times the benchmark.

Read it this way Every specialty's lowest-quarter award already clears the parity line, and the highest-quarter bars show how far awards can drift within a single specialty: neurology's highest quarter reached 17 times the benchmark against a low of 3 times. That within-specialty range is as important as the difference between specialties. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.

0.00× 5.00× 10.00× 15.00× 20.00× 2.00× 3.00× Emergency 3.00× 6.00× Radiology 3.00× 13.00× Surgery 3.00× 17.00× Neurology 2.00× 2.00× Anesthesia parity Lowest quarter Highest quarter
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
SpecialtyLowest quarter, x QPAHighest quarter, x QPA
Emergency department23
Radiology36
Surgery313
Neurology and neuromuscular317
Anesthesia22

CMS and Congressional Research Service, Federal IDR data · 2024 · source

Median IDR award vs the insurer benchmark, by firm, 2025

Median winning award as a percent of the Qualifying Payment Amount, the insurer benchmark. The line marks the benchmark itself.

Read it this way All four firms' median awards are several multiples of the insurer benchmark, led by HaloMD at more than eight times. Because these are firm-level medians from different 2025 quarters per the caveat, compare the relative ordering of firms rather than treating the percentages as simultaneous snapshots. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.

Caveat Firm-level medians drawn from 2025 quarters. HaloMD and Radiology Partners are second-quarter figures. SCP Health and Team Health are period medians.

0% 250% 500% 750% 1000% HaloMD 835% Radiology Partners 594% SCP Health 370% Team Health 277% insurer benchmark (QPA)
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
FirmMedian award, % of QPA, 2025
HaloMD835
Radiology Partners594
SCP Health370
Team Health277

Georgetown CHIR, No Surprises Act IDR process, early 2025 data · 2025 · source

The litigation that stripped the QPA anchor

Two rulings removed the insurer benchmark's presumptive weight in arbitration, a leading structural explanation for rising provider win rates and award multiples.

Read it this way The two court events shown mark when the insurer benchmark lost its special legal weight in arbitration. Read this timeline as the structural explanation for the rising provider-win and award-multiple trends charted elsewhere in this tab, not as a complete account of every factor involved. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.

Feb 2023 TMA II (E.D. Texas) Vacated the rule that gave the QPA presumptive weight in IDR, freeing arbiters to weigh other statutory factors. 2024 Fifth Circuit affirmance Affirmed TMA II. Arbiters must weigh all statutory factors without giving the QPA special deference.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
DateCaseHolding
2023-02-06TMA II (E.D. Texas)Vacated the QPA presumptive-weight provisions of the August 2022 Final Rule.
2024Fifth Circuit affirmanceAffirmed TMA II. QPA gets no special deference.

Georgetown CHIR and Federal IDR data · 2024 · source

Who works it, who pays

The concentrated set of firms driving dispute volume, the overhead the fight burns, and the promised premium savings now at risk.

80%
of the promised NSA savings assumed arbitration would pay near in-network rates
Now at risk with awards at 322 percent of the benchmark. CBO projected a 0.5 to 1 percent premium cut and $17B in deficit reduction.
$718M
spent just to run IDR arbitration, 2022 to 2024
Another roughly $844M in the first half of 2025 alone, a dead-weight cost that buys no care.

A few initiators drive most disputes, 2023 H1

Share of dispute volume by initiator. A handful of private-equity-affiliated firms drive the majority.

Read it this way Just three initiators, named in the table as SCP Health, Team Health, and Radiology Partners, account for more than half of all dispute volume. This concentration matters because the win-rate chart elsewhere in this tab shows these same high-volume firms winning above the overall average. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.

58% Top 3 share Top 3 initiators 58% · 58% Next 7 initiators 20% · 20% All other initiators 22% · 22%
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
GroupShare of disputes, 2023 H1, %
Top 3 initiators (SCP Health, Team Health, Radiology Partners)58
Next 7 initiators20
All other initiators22

CMS, Federal IDR Supplemental Background Public Use Files · 2023 · source

Money spent just to run the arbitration, and it is accelerating

Total fees paid to run the IDR process. The first half of 2025 alone already outspent the prior three years combined.

Read it this way Six months of 2025 fees already exceed the entire three-year 2022-2024 total, showing the cost of running arbitration is accelerating rather than leveling off. This is the fee to operate the process itself and buys no medical care. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.

Caveat The 2022-2024 total is $559M in IDR-entity fees plus $159M in administrative fees. The H1 2025 figure is an approximate.

$0M $250M $500M $750M $1,000M H1 2025 alone $844M Total, 2022-2024 $718M
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
PeriodFees, USD millions
2022-2024 total718
IDR-entity fees, 2022-2024559
Administrative fees, 2022-2024159
H1 2025 (approximate)844

CMS, Federal IDR data · 2025 · source

Why this matters

Two court rulings, TMA II in February 2023 and its 2024 Fifth Circuit affirmance, stripped the insurer benchmark (the QPA) of its presumptive weight in arbitration, freeing arbiters to weigh other factors. Since then, median awards have run at 322 percent of the benchmark, and a handful of firms, just three initiators accounting for 58 percent of dispute volume, win even more often than the overall average. Running the process itself now costs real money with no care delivered: $718 million from 2022 to 2024, and roughly $844 million in the first half of 2025 alone. The CBO assumed 80 percent of the law's projected savings would come from arbitration tracking near in-network rates, an assumption current awards contradict.

Recommended actions

  • Monitor whether legislation or rulemaking restores a credible presumptive weight to the insurer benchmark, since award multiples moved in lockstep with the two rulings that removed it.
  • Track dispute-initiator concentration (currently top 3 firms at 58 percent of volume) as an early-warning signal for coordinated use of the arbitration process.
  • Target resolution-time enforcement against the 33-business-day statutory standard, currently missed at a 54-day median and a 93-day median for air-ambulance cases.
  • Watch the provider win-rate trend (80 percent in 2023 to 88 percent in H1 2025) as the single KPI that determines whether the law's premium savings are still on track.
  • Measure the operating cost of IDR itself (on pace to exceed $1.6 billion across 2022 to mid-2025) against any savings delivered, since a process this expensive needs to net positive for the patients it was built to protect.

The recommendation

Therefore, preserve the patient shield while redesigning the dispute system for throughput and accountability. The recommended program is to reduce unnecessary arbitration, monitor resolution time and initiator concentration, enforce clear QPA rules, and keep administrative costs from recreating the affordability problem out of sight.

Demographic slice none. IDR case data carries no patient demographic field.

Sources