Surprise bills
Did the arbitration system built to settle those bills get overwhelmed, and is it slow?
For patients, yes: the law holds them harmless and prevents more than a million surprise bills a month. The back-end arbitration between providers and insurers is another story, with volume far above projections, providers winning about 85 percent of determinations, and awards running near 322 percent of the insurer benchmark.
The problem
Surprise-billing reform solved a visible patient harm but pushed conflict into the national payment-dispute infrastructure. Hospitals, physician groups, payers, and arbitrators now operate a back-end process that can become slow, costly, and concentrated among a small number of high-volume initiators.
The recommendation
Preserve the patient shield while redesigning the dispute system for throughput and accountability. The recommended program is to reduce unnecessary arbitration, monitor resolution time and initiator concentration, enforce clear QPA rules, and keep administrative costs from recreating the affordability problem out of sight.
The patient shield
The verdict on whether the law did its consumer job: stopping surprise balance bills at the point of care.
The arbitration breakdown
The back-end payment fight going sideways: overwhelmed far past projection, running slow, tilting to providers, and awarding far above the insurer benchmark.
IDR disputes initiated vs resolved per year
New arbitration disputes filed and closed each year. The flat line near the axis is the roughly 17,000 a year regulators originally projected.
Read it this way The projected-volume line sits flat near the bottom while initiated and closed disputes both climbed into the millions by 2024, more than eighty times the original 17,000-a-year estimate. The caveat notes that only in the first half of 2025 did closures begin exceeding new filings, meaning the backlog was still growing, not shrinking, over the years plotted here. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.
Caveat The 2024 initiated figure is CRS's rounded count of more than 1.46 million. In the first half of 2025, closures (1,349,343) already exceeded new filings (1,186,812) as the backlog began to clear.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Year | Disputes initiated | Disputes closed | Original projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 200112 | 54821 | 17000 |
| 2023 | 679156 | 311863 | 17000 |
| 2024 | 1460000 | 1371862 | 17000 |
CMS and Congressional Research Service, Federal IDR data · 2024 · source
Business days to resolve a dispute vs the statutory target
Median business days to close a dispute in Q4 2024, against the 33-business-day legal target. Air-ambulance cases run nearly three times the target.
Read it this way Both bars clear the 33-business-day statutory target, and air-ambulance disputes take close to three times as long as the median case. The caveat that roughly two-thirds of 2025 determinations still exceeded the requirement suggests this is a persistent pattern, not a one-time backlog. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.
Caveat In 2025 roughly two-thirds of determinations still exceeded the 30-business-day requirement.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Dispute type | Median business days, Q4 2024 | Statutory target |
|---|---|---|
| All disputes | 54 | 33 |
| Air-ambulance disputes | 93 | 33 |
CMS, Federal IDR data · 2024 · source
Provider vs insurer share of IDR determinations, by period
Share of arbitration determinations decided for each side. The provider share climbs every period while the insurer and benchmark side shrinks.
Read it this way The provider line rises every period while the insurer line falls by the same amount, a mirror-image trend showing the shift is one-directional rather than fluctuating. This chart alone does not explain why; that context is in the litigation timeline chart in this tab. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Period | Provider win, % | Insurer win, % |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 80 | 20 |
| 2024 | 85 | 15 |
| H1 2025 | 88 | 12 |
CMS and Congressional Research Service, Federal IDR data · 2025 · source
The highest-volume initiators win even more often, 2025
Win rate for the three largest dispute initiators. The line marks the overall H1 2025 provider win rate.
Read it this way Team Health and Radiology Partners both win more often than the overall 88 percent average, while HaloMD wins less often than that average despite still winning most of its cases. The caveat notes two of the three figures are ranges plotted at their midpoint, so treat the bar heights as approximate. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.
Caveat Two of the three are reported as ranges. Radiology Partners is 92 to 95 percent and HaloMD is 82 to 87 percent, plotted at their midpoints, with the ranges in the table.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Initiator | Win rate, 2025 | Reported figure |
|---|---|---|
| Team Health | 94 | 94% (point) |
| Radiology Partners | 93.5 | 92-95% (midpoint plotted) |
| HaloMD | 84.5 | 82-87% (midpoint plotted) |
Georgetown CHIR, No Surprises Act IDR process, early 2025 data · 2025 · source
How many times the benchmark, by specialty: lowest to highest quarter
For each specialty, the lowest-quarter and highest-quarter median award as a multiple of the insurer benchmark (QPA). The line marks parity. Neurology ran as high as 17 times the benchmark.
Read it this way Every specialty's lowest-quarter award already clears the parity line, and the highest-quarter bars show how far awards can drift within a single specialty: neurology's highest quarter reached 17 times the benchmark against a low of 3 times. That within-specialty range is as important as the difference between specialties. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Specialty | Lowest quarter, x QPA | Highest quarter, x QPA |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency department | 2 | 3 |
| Radiology | 3 | 6 |
| Surgery | 3 | 13 |
| Neurology and neuromuscular | 3 | 17 |
| Anesthesia | 2 | 2 |
CMS and Congressional Research Service, Federal IDR data · 2024 · source
Median IDR award vs the insurer benchmark, by firm, 2025
Median winning award as a percent of the Qualifying Payment Amount, the insurer benchmark. The line marks the benchmark itself.
Read it this way All four firms' median awards are several multiples of the insurer benchmark, led by HaloMD at more than eight times. Because these are firm-level medians from different 2025 quarters per the caveat, compare the relative ordering of firms rather than treating the percentages as simultaneous snapshots. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.
Caveat Firm-level medians drawn from 2025 quarters. HaloMD and Radiology Partners are second-quarter figures. SCP Health and Team Health are period medians.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Firm | Median award, % of QPA, 2025 |
|---|---|
| HaloMD | 835 |
| Radiology Partners | 594 |
| SCP Health | 370 |
| Team Health | 277 |
Georgetown CHIR, No Surprises Act IDR process, early 2025 data · 2025 · source
The litigation that stripped the QPA anchor
Two rulings removed the insurer benchmark's presumptive weight in arbitration, a leading structural explanation for rising provider win rates and award multiples.
Read it this way The two court events shown mark when the insurer benchmark lost its special legal weight in arbitration. Read this timeline as the structural explanation for the rising provider-win and award-multiple trends charted elsewhere in this tab, not as a complete account of every factor involved. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Date | Case | Holding |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-06 | TMA II (E.D. Texas) | Vacated the QPA presumptive-weight provisions of the August 2022 Final Rule. |
| 2024 | Fifth Circuit affirmance | Affirmed TMA II. QPA gets no special deference. |
Georgetown CHIR and Federal IDR data · 2024 · source
Who works it, who pays
The concentrated set of firms driving dispute volume, the overhead the fight burns, and the promised premium savings now at risk.
A few initiators drive most disputes, 2023 H1
Share of dispute volume by initiator. A handful of private-equity-affiliated firms drive the majority.
Read it this way Just three initiators, named in the table as SCP Health, Team Health, and Radiology Partners, account for more than half of all dispute volume. This concentration matters because the win-rate chart elsewhere in this tab shows these same high-volume firms winning above the overall average. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Group | Share of disputes, 2023 H1, % |
|---|---|
| Top 3 initiators (SCP Health, Team Health, Radiology Partners) | 58 |
| Next 7 initiators | 20 |
| All other initiators | 22 |
CMS, Federal IDR Supplemental Background Public Use Files · 2023 · source
Money spent just to run the arbitration, and it is accelerating
Total fees paid to run the IDR process. The first half of 2025 alone already outspent the prior three years combined.
Read it this way Six months of 2025 fees already exceed the entire three-year 2022-2024 total, showing the cost of running arbitration is accelerating rather than leveling off. This is the fee to operate the process itself and buys no medical care. Use this chart to see whether the law is protecting patients, shifting disputes, or creating administrative load, and why the recommendation preserves the shield while improving the back-end process.
Caveat The 2022-2024 total is $559M in IDR-entity fees plus $159M in administrative fees. The H1 2025 figure is an approximate.
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
| Period | Fees, USD millions |
|---|---|
| 2022-2024 total | 718 |
| IDR-entity fees, 2022-2024 | 559 |
| Administrative fees, 2022-2024 | 159 |
| H1 2025 (approximate) | 844 |
CMS, Federal IDR data · 2025 · source
Why this matters
Two court rulings, TMA II in February 2023 and its 2024 Fifth Circuit affirmance, stripped the insurer benchmark (the QPA) of its presumptive weight in arbitration, freeing arbiters to weigh other factors. Since then, median awards have run at 322 percent of the benchmark, and a handful of firms, just three initiators accounting for 58 percent of dispute volume, win even more often than the overall average. Running the process itself now costs real money with no care delivered: $718 million from 2022 to 2024, and roughly $844 million in the first half of 2025 alone. The CBO assumed 80 percent of the law's projected savings would come from arbitration tracking near in-network rates, an assumption current awards contradict.
Recommended actions
- Monitor whether legislation or rulemaking restores a credible presumptive weight to the insurer benchmark, since award multiples moved in lockstep with the two rulings that removed it.
- Track dispute-initiator concentration (currently top 3 firms at 58 percent of volume) as an early-warning signal for coordinated use of the arbitration process.
- Target resolution-time enforcement against the 33-business-day statutory standard, currently missed at a 54-day median and a 93-day median for air-ambulance cases.
- Watch the provider win-rate trend (80 percent in 2023 to 88 percent in H1 2025) as the single KPI that determines whether the law's premium savings are still on track.
- Measure the operating cost of IDR itself (on pace to exceed $1.6 billion across 2022 to mid-2025) against any savings delivered, since a process this expensive needs to net positive for the patients it was built to protect.
The recommendation
Therefore, preserve the patient shield while redesigning the dispute system for throughput and accountability. The recommended program is to reduce unnecessary arbitration, monitor resolution time and initiator concentration, enforce clear QPA rules, and keep administrative costs from recreating the affordability problem out of sight.
Demographic slice none. IDR case data carries no patient demographic field.
Sources
- Congressional Research Service, NSA IDR Data Analysis for 2024 (R48738) · 2024
- CMS, Federal IDR Supplemental Background Public Use Files · 2025
- Georgetown CHIR, No Surprises Act IDR process, early 2025 data · 2025
- AHIP and BCBSA, surprise-bill reduction survey · 2023
- Congressional Budget Office, No Surprises Act budgetary effects · 2022