off label.
Filters
State
charts re-slice where a pre-computed view exists

Insurance coverage

When 25 million people lost Medicaid, was it because they were ineligible, or because of paperwork?

The uninsured rate fell to a record 7.6% in 2023, but coverage is deeply uneven. 16.8% of Texans are uninsured versus 2.8% of people in Massachusetts, and Hispanic working-age adults are uninsured at 24.8%, more than three times the White rate of 6.8%.

Question

The problem

Coverage policy shapes the entire care delivery landscape, but enrollment alone does not guarantee access to hospitals, physicians, medications, or affordable follow-up. The national failure mode is churn plus card-to-care leakage: eligible people lose coverage through administrative process, and insured people can still face cost barriers or provider-acceptance gaps.

The recommendation

Run coverage as an end-to-end access program. The recommended strategy is to automate renewals, reduce procedural disenrollment, monitor whether Medicaid and marketplace coverage convert into accepted appointments, and hold states and plans accountable for continuity of care after enrollment.

The gap: who and where

How wide the uninsured gap is, who it lands on, where it concentrates, and whether it has begun to reverse for children.

Uninsured rate, 2019 to 2023

NHIS estimates for all ages and for working-age adults.

Read it this way Both the all-ages line (10.3% to 7.6%) and the working-age-adult line (14.7% to 10.9%) fall every year with no reversal, confirming the record-low uninsured rate is a sustained multi-year trend. The gap between the two lines, adults consistently higher than the all-ages figure, reflects that children have separate coverage pathways this chart doesn't break out. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 20192020202120222023 Adults 18 to 64All ages
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
YearAll ages (%)Adults 18 to 64 (%)
201910.314.7
20209.713.9
20219.213.5
20228.412.2
20237.610.9

NCHS, NHIS Health Insurance Coverage Early Release, 2023 · 2023 · source

Child uninsured rate reversed after the unwinding, 2022 vs 2024

Child uninsured rate rose after the Medicaid unwinding, reversing a decade of gains (Census ACS via Georgetown CCF).

Read it this way Both age groups moved the wrong direction from 2022 to 2024, with children under 6 rising slightly more (4.3 to 5.3%) than children under 19 overall (5.1 to 6.0%). Two data points can't confirm a new multi-year trend by themselves, only that the direction reversed between these two years. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 5.1% 6.0% Children under 19 4.3% 5.3% Children under 6 2022 2024
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
Age group2022 uninsured (%)2024 uninsured (%)
Children under 195.16
Children under 64.35.3

Georgetown University Center for Children and Families (analysis of Census ACS) · 2024 · source

Uninsured rate by state (2024)

ACS-based estimate. US overall is 8.2%. Texas is highest at 16.8%, Massachusetts lowest at 2.8%.

Read it this way States shaded darkest, led by Texas at 16.8%, run more than double the 8.2% national benchmark, while Massachusetts at 2.8% is roughly a sixth of Texas's rate. This is a single-year snapshot, so it can't show whether a state's uninsured rate is improving or worsening over time. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

AK 11.1% ME 5.6% WA 6.5% ID 9.0% MT 8.6% ND 6.0% MN 5.3% WI 5.4% MI 5.0% NY 4.9% VT 4.3% NH 4.7% OR 5.2% NV 11.4% WY 9.7% SD 7.9% IA 5.7% IL 6.8% IN 7.4% OH 6.7% PA 6.0% NJ 7.7% MA 2.8% CA 5.9% UT 8.3% CO 7.8% NE 7.6% MO 7.6% KY 6.9% WV 5.9% VA 6.8% MD 6.2% CT 5.7% RI 4.8% AZ 10.2% NM 10.2% KS 8.6% AR 9.3% TN 9.7% NC 8.6% SC 9.1% DC 4.7% DE 6.9% OK 11.7% LA 7.6% MS 9.7% AL 8.2% GA 12.0% TX 16.8% FL 10.9% HI 3.3% 0.0% 17.0%
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
StateUninsured (%)
Texas16.8
Georgia12
Oklahoma11.7
Nevada11.4
Alaska11.1
Florida10.9
Arizona10.2
New Mexico10.2
Mississippi9.7
Tennessee9.7
Wyoming9.7
Arkansas9.3
South Carolina9.1
Idaho9
Kansas8.6
Montana8.6
North Carolina8.6
Utah8.3
Alabama8.2
South Dakota7.9
Colorado7.8
New Jersey7.7
Louisiana7.6
Missouri7.6
Nebraska7.6
Indiana7.4
Delaware6.9
Kentucky6.9
Illinois6.8
Virginia6.8
Ohio6.7
Washington6.5
Maryland6.2
North Dakota6
Pennsylvania6
California5.9
West Virginia5.9
Connecticut5.7
Iowa5.7
Maine5.6
Wisconsin5.4
Minnesota5.3
Oregon5.2
Michigan5
New York4.9
Rhode Island4.8
District of Columbia4.7
New Hampshire4.7
Vermont4.3
Hawaii3.3
Massachusetts2.8

KFF State Health Facts, Health Insurance Coverage of the Total Population · 2024 · source

Uninsured rate by race and ethnicity, adults 18 to 64 (2023)

Share of working-age adults with no health coverage at time of interview.

Read it this way The Hispanic uninsured rate (24.8%) is more than three times the White rate (6.8%) and more than five times the Asian rate (4.4%), so coverage gaps by race and ethnicity are large even after the overall uninsured rate hit a record low. This is a national aggregate, so it can't show how much of the gap traces to income or state of residence versus race itself. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

0.0% 6.3% 12.5% 18.8% 25.0% Hispanic 24.8% Black, non-Hispanic 10.4% White, non-Hispanic 6.8% Asian, non-Hispanic 4.4%
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
GroupUninsured (%)
Hispanic24.8
Black, non-Hispanic10.4
White, non-Hispanic6.8
Asian, non-Hispanic4.4

NCHS, NHIS Health Insurance Coverage Early Release, 2023 · 2023 · source

Uninsured rate by income, adults 18 to 64 (2023)

By household income as a percent of the federal poverty level (FPL).

Read it this way Uninsured rates fall sharply as income rises, from 20.2% below the poverty line to 4.3% at 400% of it or more, nearly a fivefold difference between the bottom and top bands. Income bands here are self-contained categories, so this chart can't show how income and the race and ethnicity gap shown alongside it interact for any individual. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

0.0% 6.3% 12.5% 18.8% 25.0% Below 100% FPL 20.2% 100 to 199% FPL 19.1% 200 to 399% FPL 11.5% 400% FPL or more 4.3%
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
Income bandUninsured (%)
Below 100% FPL20.2
100 to 199% FPL19.1
200 to 399% FPL11.5
400% FPL or more4.3

NCHS, NHIS Health Insurance Coverage Early Release, 2023 · 2023 · source

Losing coverage: the unwinding

Why 25 million lost Medicaid, paperwork versus true ineligibility, and how children bore a large share of the loss.

5 million
net drop in child Medicaid enrollment through October 2024
Children were about 37% of disenrollments in the 14 states that reported age-specific data.

How 25.2 million Medicaid disenrollments split: paperwork vs ineligibility

Procedural means a paperwork or administrative reason, not a finding of ineligibility.

Read it this way More than two in three of the 25.2 million people disenrolled during the unwinding lost coverage for a paperwork reason, not because anyone determined they were ineligible. That split is the direct evidence behind the recommendation to expand automatic renewals, though it doesn't show how many of the 69% procedurally disenrolled were actually still eligible. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

25.2M disenrolled Procedural (paperwork) 69% · 69% Ineligibility 31% · 31%
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
ReasonShare (%)
Procedural (paperwork)69
Ineligibility31

KFF, As Medicaid Unwinding Concludes, 25 Million Lost Coverage · 2024 · source

Medicaid disenrollment rate, highest states vs lowest

Share of completed Medicaid renewals that ended in disenrollment. Only states with a source-confirmed rate are shown.

Read it this way Montana's disenrollment rate (57%) is nearly five times North Carolina's (12%), showing the unwinding's impact varied enormously by state administration, not just by national eligibility rules. As the caveat notes, only these six states had a source-confirmed rate at collection, so this can't be read as a ranking of all 50 states. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

Caveat KFF's full 50-state tracker is a live table. Only these six states had a discrete, source-confirmed rate at collection. Others are omitted rather than estimated.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Montana 57% Utah 56% Idaho 55% Oklahoma 54% Texas 54% North Carolina 12%
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
StateDisenrollment rate (%)
Montana57
Utah56
Idaho55
Oklahoma54
Texas54
North Carolina12

KFF, Medicaid Enrollment and Unwinding Tracker · 2024 · source

Insurance isn't access

Even with a card, cost still blocks care, and a Medicaid card buys second-class access because fewer doctors accept it.

35.7%
of psychiatrists accept new Medicaid patients
Versus 70.8% of physicians overall (NEHRS, 2014 to 2017).

Insurance is not access: barriers by insurance status, 2023

NHIS. The insured comparator is all insured for the first measure and privately insured for the other two.

Read it this way The uninsured bar is several times taller than the insured bar on every measure, most sharply for having no usual source of care (40.6% vs 9.1%), showing lacking any coverage is a much bigger barrier than the type of coverage a person has. The insured comparator switches definitions across measures (all insured versus privately insured only), so read the exact multiples as directional, not precise. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

0.0% 12.5% 25.0% 37.5% 50.0% 26.3% 5.8% Delayed or went without care (cost) 40.6% 9.1% No usual source of care 13.0% 4.9% Skipped a prescription (cost) Uninsured Insured
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
BarrierUninsured (%)Insured (%)
Delayed or went without care (cost)26.35.8
No usual source of care40.69.1
Skipped a prescription (cost)134.9

NCHS NHIS, via Healthy People 2030 (AHS-04, AHS-06, AHS-07) · 2023 · source

Cost barrier to needed care, 2019 to 2023

Share who delayed or went without needed care because of cost, all ages (NHIS, Healthy People 2030 AHS-04).

Read it this way The cost barrier eased from 8.5% to 6.8% between 2019 and 2022 but has been flat since, showing the improvement stalled rather than continuing. This tracks all ages combined and doesn't break out whether the plateau looks different for insured versus uninsured people. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 20192020202120222023 Cost barrier
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
YearCost barrier (%)
20198.5
20207.2
20217
20226.8
20236.8

NCHS NHIS, via Healthy People 2030 (AHS-04) · 2023 · source

Physicians accepting new patients, by payer

Share of office-based physicians accepting new patients, by payer. Medicaid is 2014 to 2017, Medicare and private are 2019.

Read it this way Medicaid acceptance (73.7%) trails Medicare (89%) and private insurance (91%) by 15 to 17 points, so a Medicaid card still buys measurably less access to a new physician than other coverage types. As the caveat notes, the Medicaid figure is from 2014 to 2017 while Medicare and private are 2019, so the true gap today could be narrower or wider. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

Caveat Payer figures come from different survey years (Medicaid 2014 to 2017, Medicare and private 2019).

0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0% Private / commercial 91.0% Medicare 89.0% Medicaid 73.7%
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
PayerAccepting new patients (%)Data years
Private / commercial912019
Medicare892019
Medicaid73.72014 to 2017

MACPAC and KFF, Physician Acceptance of New Patients by Payer · 2019 · source

Medicaid-to-Medicare fee index by state (all services, 2024)

Medicaid physician fee as a ratio of the Medicare fee for the same services. Below 1.0 means Medicaid pays less. Tennessee runs Medicaid fully through managed care, so it has no fee-for-service index.

Read it this way States shaded darkest, like Rhode Island at 0.52 and New Jersey at 0.61, pay Medicaid physicians roughly half the Medicare rate, while Montana (1.32) and Alaska (1.3) pay Medicaid physicians more than Medicare. Tennessee has no value because it runs Medicaid fully through managed care, so its absence from the map isn't a data gap. Use this chart to see where coverage breaks down, enrollment, affordability, or provider access, and why the recommendation treats card-to-care conversion as the outcome rather than insured status alone.

AK 1.30× ME 0.78× WA 0.64× ID 0.94× MT 1.32× ND 1.06× MN 0.74× WI 0.66× MI 0.76× NY 0.76× VT 0.87× NH 0.73× OR 0.88× NV 0.90× WY 1.00× SD 0.91× IA 0.77× IL 0.63× IN 0.96× OH 0.63× PA 0.68× NJ 0.61× MA 0.74× CA 0.67× UT 0.80× CO 0.83× NE 1.01× MO 0.86× KY 0.69× WV 0.82× VA 0.83× MD 0.95× CT 0.79× RI 0.52× AZ 0.98× NM 1.21× KS 0.69× AR 0.76× TN NC 0.82× SC 0.89× DC 0.81× DE 0.96× OK 0.94× LA 0.64× MS 0.93× AL 0.92× GA 0.83× TX 0.63× FL 0.64× HI 0.84× 0.00× 1.32×
⊞ data table⬇ CSV
StateMedicaid-to-Medicare fee index
Montana1.32
Alaska1.3
New Mexico1.21
North Dakota1.06
Nebraska1.01
Wyoming1
Arizona0.98
Delaware0.96
Indiana0.96
Maryland0.95
Idaho0.94
Oklahoma0.94
Mississippi0.93
Alabama0.92
South Dakota0.91
Nevada0.9
South Carolina0.89
Oregon0.88
Vermont0.87
Missouri0.86
Hawaii0.84
Colorado0.83
Georgia0.83
Virginia0.83
North Carolina0.82
West Virginia0.82
District of Columbia0.81
Utah0.8
Connecticut0.79
Maine0.78
Iowa0.77
Arkansas0.76
Michigan0.76
New York0.76
Massachusetts0.74
Minnesota0.74
New Hampshire0.73
Kansas0.69
Kentucky0.69
Pennsylvania0.68
California0.67
Wisconsin0.66
Florida0.64
Louisiana0.64
Washington0.64
Illinois0.63
Ohio0.63
Texas0.63
New Jersey0.61
Rhode Island0.52
Tennesseeno fee-for-service index

KFF State Health Facts, Medicaid-to-Medicare Fee Index (Urban Institute) · 2024 · source

Geography

The same question, state by state and then county by county. Pick a state in the filter above to drill into its counties.

Uninsured rate (all ages)

County · direct count

Each tile is a state. Pick a state in the Scope control above to drill into its counties.

AK 10.8% ME 6.6% WA 6.3% ID 9.2% MT 8.3% ND 6.5% MN 4.5% WI 5.3% MI 5.0% NY 5.0% VT 3.9% NH 5.5% OR 6.2% NV 11.2% WY 11.4% SD 9.1% IA 4.8% IL 6.9% IN 7.5% OH 6.3% PA 5.5% NJ 7.4% MA 2.6% CA 6.8% UT 8.6% CO 7.6% NE 7.3% MO 9.0% KY 5.8% WV 6.1% VA 6.9% MD 6.1% CT 5.2% RI 4.3% AZ 10.4% NM 9.3% KS 8.7% AR 8.8% TN 10.0% NC 10.2% SC 9.8% DC 3.4% DE 6.1% OK 13.2% LA 7.9% MS 11.3% AL 9.3% GA 12.4% TX 17.1% FL 11.7% HI 3.6% better than benchmark worse

Census SAHIE / ACS via HealthPulse · 2022 · source

Adults without health insurance

County · modeled prevalence (95% CI)

Each tile is a state. Pick a state in the Scope control above to drill into its counties.

AK 10.1% ME 8.1% WA 8.6% ID 10.9% MT 9.5% ND 7.4% MN 7.7% WI 8.2% MI 7.0% NY 8.1% VT 6.2% NH 7.0% OR 8.6% NV 14.7% WY 11.8% SD 9.0% IA 7.5% IL 10.1% IN 9.0% OH 8.2% PA NJ 11.6% MA 5.3% CA 10.8% UT 10.4% CO 11.2% NE 10.1% MO 8.8% KY WV 8.7% VA 8.9% MD 8.9% CT 10.3% RI 8.4% AZ 13.4% NM 15.9% KS 10.2% AR 11.5% TN 11.8% NC 10.6% SC 12.0% DC 6.3% DE 9.2% OK 11.5% LA 9.1% MS 11.7% AL 10.1% GA 13.3% TX 19.4% FL 16.3% HI 5.7% better than benchmark worse

CDC PLACES (model-based small-area estimates) · 2024 · source

Why this matters

Of the 25.2 million people disenrolled from Medicaid during the unwinding, 69% lost coverage for a paperwork or administrative reason, not a finding of ineligibility, and children made up 37% of disenrollments in the 14 states reporting age-specific data. State administration varied enormously, from a 57% disenrollment rate in Montana to 12% in North Carolina among the six states with a source-confirmed rate, showing the paperwork burden itself, not eligibility rules, is what pushes people off coverage. Leadership should care because this is coverage the country already earned and is giving back to a process failure, not a policy reversal.

Recommended actions

  • Target automatic (ex parte) Medicaid renewal expansion in states still relying on manual paperwork renewals.
  • Prioritize remediation of the child Medicaid enrollment reversal, a 5 million net drop through October 2024, given children's outsized share of procedural disenrollments.
  • Monitor the six states with source-confirmed disenrollment rates (Montana, Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Texas, North Carolina) as an early-warning cohort for administrative-burden fixes.
  • Shift outreach resources toward Hispanic and lower-income populations, where uninsured rates run three to five times the White and high-income baselines.
  • Track the cost-barrier-to-care rate, flat at 6.8% since 2022, as the KPI deciding whether coverage gains are translating into actual care access.

The recommendation

Therefore, run coverage as an end-to-end access program. The recommended strategy is to automate renewals, reduce procedural disenrollment, monitor whether Medicaid and marketplace coverage convert into accepted appointments, and hold states and plans accountable for continuity of care after enrollment.

Demographic slice race, income, age, citizenship, native to Census ACS and NHIS. The anchor metric for the Equity panel.

Sources